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Fine. I am being overly dramatic. But, if I can accurately predict the future then I belong in the same pantheon as John the Baptist, Nostradamus, and Cassandra.
Here’s my latest attempt at predicting the future of the music business, circa 2011.
- Consumer brands investment in new music talent will overtake record label investment. Just today I was reading in the Wall Street Journal that investment by US consumer brands in music related activities will top $1 billion. This doubled in the past 6 years. By contrast, global investment by record labels in new artists was $5 billion. Remember, for one this is a core activity, for the other, this is a fraction of their marketing spend. With record sales declining and consumer spending finally picking up, you don’t need to be Nostradamus to figure out this one. Companies to watch: Diesel and Red Bull.
- More artist-fan funding collaborations ahead. The RIAA likes to treat consumers like they’re thieves. Don’t touch this, don’t steal that, it belongs to us, not you and not the artist. Smart artists know that the future is all about direct collaborations with fans. Check out Amanda Palmer who funded her Radiohead covers album exclusively with fan donations. Music fans want to help artists. They just don’t want to spend $15 buying music albums any more. Expect creative funding partnerships ahead. Companies to watch: PledgeMusic and Headliner.fm.
- App Stores will become the new record stores. We’ve seen all kinds of mainstream artists release apps in 2010 (Jay Z and Phish are just two) and a host of app developers get more and more business from artists. When the album shrank from a 12 inch (30 cm) LP to a byte-sized file on your computer, with it was lost the experience of touching, feeling, seeing and discovering the artist in that tangible way that only vinyl offered. Apps bring that interactivity back. Companies to watch: MobBase and Mobile Roadie.
- Smartphones are the new… automobiles. Most of us listen to radio when we drive (I don’t know about you but I can’t recall the last time I turned on the radio at home; late-80’s maybe?) With a host of online radio apps available, more and more people will experience radio and new music discovery from the comfort of their own… subway, stroll to work, gym, dog walk. The iPhone has enabled Pandora to finally make the jump from niche to the mainstream and many other companies are coming after it. Company to watch: Rdio. Wild card: Clear Channel.
- The word Indie becomes obsolete. Back in the day, indie meant independent. As in, I have no major label behind me because I’m not main-stream enough. Indie was punk. Or speed metal. Or name any genre that did not fit into the neat radio formats of the day. Indie was The Ramones. Or Wendy O. Williams. I have no idea what indie means anymore. NARAS considers even artists like Paul McCartney to be indie this year. Most artists don’t even want to be on or need a label the way they had/used to. So, an artist is independent of what? The end of labeling is a good thing. 2011 will be the year when we stop talking about indie music and indie artists but about new music and emerging artists. Or, just about MUSIC.
Panos
Hi Pano,
You Are Of Course, Absolutely Spot On,
I Also Predict, My Space, Will Be The First Social Network
Site, To Evolve Into The Biggest Online, Independent Label,
Consisting Of Hundreds Of Thousands Of Individual, My Space
Labels, (Currently Known As Artist Pages)However, Such
Success Would Be Hindered, Unless A Universal Chart System
Country/Genre/Quality Of Recording,
Was Put In Place, To Allow Consumers To Trust & Encourage
Them To Want To Be Part Of A New Beginning For Music Buying.
The Death Knell Is Sounding For ‘Live’ Music, With Many Music Venues, Closing Down, Because The Bodies Just Won’t Make The Effort, Unless It’s A Major Artist, Enhanced By Major PR.
New Music Suffers, A Band May Have 77,000 My Space Friends,
Worldwide, But How Can An Artist Influence Fans To Come See Them Perform, Where The Artist Lives?
They Can’t! Perhaps, The Next Generation Of Performing ‘Live’ Will Be Virtual Performances, From Studios, More Equipped To Web Broadcast, Than Cater For
The “Old School” Social Networks, Lol” Pubs, Clubs, Drinks & Live Bands
Regards
Duggie Kyle
Uh oh, you mentioned the word “indie”, now I HAVE to respond
Totally agree with you dude, the word pretty much is already obsolete. I don’t know many artists (or any for that matter) that identify themselves as “indie” anyway.
However, I think the last people to let go of the word will be companies selling products and services to “indie” artists. So my question for you, good sir, is this:
Will you lead the way and remove all mentions of the word “indie” from the Sonicbids site and marketing materials?
Cheers,
Dave “What is INDIE?” Cool
panos-
to your first point, do you know of a resource that has a breakdown of consumer brands that are ‘investing’ in a music tie-in?
“Music fans want to help artists. They just don’t want to spend $15 buying music albums any more.”
agree 100% there
David, you are right taking me to task about removing references to indie music on the site. OK, you got it. We will gradually remove references to indie music on the site within the next 120 days.
If there is anyone willing to put their money where their mouth is, it is you Panos. Cheers sir.
Dave
Hey Adam – I have some insight in response to your question:
“. . .do you know of a resource that has a breakdown of consumer brands that are ‘investing’ in a music tie-in?”
Look into the IEG Sponsorship Report (sponsorship.com). They break all sponsorship opps down by category including brands that invest in the music space. Twice monthly they publish a report that lists new deals and in most cases what the specific brands look for in music opportunities, their hot buttons and name contacts. Very handy piece of intel as the worlds of music and brand continue to converge.
Have your thought about including some social bookmark buttons to your website web site? A minimum of add one for Digg so we will digg you up!
I predict companies like ReverbNation and Sonicbids will continue to feed on the souls of musicians and continue to damage the level of music talent. A talent that already is hard to find. Asking musicians to pay to play… pathetic and you should be ashamed of your role in this horrid development Pathos as in Pathological.
we’re all watching and waiting ….. in the meantime check out Discordian Society.
http://www.discordianmusic.com
http://www.thediscordiansociety.net
http://www.reverbnation.com/discordiansociety
http://www.myspace.com/discordiansociety
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Discordian-Society/109533896258
All labels are not BS as the majors are. For example, people who are considering a record deal should check out Expat Records. I have not seen any other organization that is 1/1000th as forward-thinking as Expat Records
The Ramones were on Sire Records, Wendy O and the Plasmatics were on Capital